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Thread: SHTF situation

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    G19 Slice11's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer1270 View Post
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    I get your point and I actually agree
    For your sake, I hope you are right. Well, for everyone's sake, I hope you are right.

    Madness is rare in individuals - but in groups, parties, nations, and ages it is the rule - Friedrich Nietzsche

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
    Last edited by Slice11; December 14th, 2017 at 06:46 PM.
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    Senior Member GRCarry's Avatar
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    One interesting thing is that bitcoin is a fiat currency. It is backed by someone else's faith that they can use it to purchase something else, and that it will be worth the same or more later. In itself, it has no value. Right now, I'm watching it increase in value dramatically. What if some event occurs and people decide it's worth only $300 in the next month? I wonder what that would do to various economies around the world?

    If SHTF, would we trust it? Assuming that there is technology to access it. Or would we want something solid? Silver, gold, some other medium of barter?
    TANSTAAFL - "Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
    OldVet, 30 March 2018: "But being the agreeable sort, I agree."

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    Senior Member Hammer1270's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GRCarry View Post
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    One interesting thing is that bitcoin is a fiat currency. It is backed by someone else's faith that they can use it to purchase something else, and that it will be worth the same or more later. In itself, it has no value. Right now, I'm watching it increase in value dramatically. What if some event occurs and people decide it's worth only $300 in the next month? I wonder what that would do to various economies around the world?

    If SHTF, would we trust it? Assuming that there is technology to access it. Or would we want something solid? Silver, gold, some other medium of barter?
    In the case of the market you can't be more right,, Rule is that any commodity or company is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it,, I would believe that something or anything SOLID has a certain worth,,,, today the Market dictates that something that is not solid and only exists as something that is not solid or touchable (Digital) has monetary worth more than what we have believed in all of our lives,, Scary but real,,,, I prefer Gold but the Market dictates otherwise,, Where are we headed? Into a Cyber World that scares the heck outta me,,, Not because I say that we are headed in that direction but because the Market tells me so,,, I believe in history, and history tells me that we are headed into a cyber world that I have fought against all of my life,,, Ya see,, Historically,, the market has proven itself to be a mechanism that looks forward and predicts the future whether we like it or not,,, I disagree with the direction but I have no choice but to accept what history has proven as if I don't, I will be proven foolish to go against tested and proven fact,,, I grew up as a true Warrior,, I adapt and not only Thrive but Dominate because I recognize the trend and I adapt to it,,, Our Children will live in a different world,, I am scared for what the future holds for our offspring,,, I have taught my children well but will it be enough? I pray that it is,,, but fact is that the majority of the children have no clue so they will be programmed leaving my children as the minority that have a mind of their own..
    Nonsensical Gibberish Talkin Clown,,, Das Me,,,, hehehehe.....

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    Asst. Administrator ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GRCarry View Post
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    One interesting thing is that bitcoin is a fiat currency. It is backed by someone else's faith that they can use it to purchase something else, and that it will be worth the same or more later. In itself, it has no value.
    In the same sense, so is cash. It hinges on the faith people have that it's actually backed by something tenable and real. I suppose one could say that the authority and ability of a government to print more cash is something real, that promising seven generations of our children's ability to pay debts back is something real. Still based on faith that it works, however, more solid though it might be than faith in any other token system.

    The "gold standard" ceased to exist, in the USA, many moons ago. That was backed by something real, though even that itself dependned on the faith that holding gold could be useful in future.

    Granted, that backing by sheer faith and backing by (at least) the U.S. Gov't (the people) is quite a bit different ... at least, on the face of it. But, underneath, all modes of exchange except for FTF barter for commodity goods-in-hand is based on faith that the token (whatever token) has value in the future. Whether that token of faith be a physical signature on a piece of paper, a digital signature, cash, or whatever token of faith one chooses.

    Just ask any Venezuelan, today, whether "cash" in hand has any real value that's backed by anything solid. (Any of the world's economies can have this happen in a heartbeat, if the conditions are right and that "faith" evaporates. Germany in the 1920s, the USA in the early 1930s, Venezuela now, etc.)

    Good topic: the ability to trade with others, in the face of a truly SHTF situation where "faith" in tokens of value takes a severe hit.


    Quote from a recent film that hits this point home:

    Investor: "Money's still money."

    Oscar Schindler: "No, it is not. That's why we're here. Trade goods, that's the only currency that'll be worth anything in the ghetto. Things have changed, my friend."

    - from the 1993 film Schindler's List, in a discussion between potential investors in Schindler's "pots and pans" manufacturing enterprise, where he's asking the investors to put up all the money and he would handle "the presentation" (but not "the work").
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    G19 Slice11's Avatar
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    If you haven't watched Mike Maloney's series, I plead with you to do so...
    First one here, there are 7, about to be 8

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyV0OfU3-FU

    There are many others, but Mike Maloney's are the easiest to digest.

    Now that bitcoin is traded on COMEX, it will be shorted/manipulated by the CBs to their heart's content.
    Nothing will happen without their consent.
    Last edited by Slice11; December 16th, 2017 at 03:59 PM.
    "The secret of freedom lies in educating people, whereas the secret of
    tyranny is in keeping them ignorant." - Maximilien Robespierre

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    Senior Member GRCarry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ccw9mm View Post
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    In the same sense, so is cash. It hinges on the faith people have that it's actually backed by something tenable and real. I suppose one could say that the authority and ability of a government to print more cash is something real, that promising seven generations of our children's ability to pay debts back is something real. Still based on faith that it works, however, more solid though it might be than faith in any other token system.

    The "gold standard" ceased to exist, in the USA, many moons ago. That was backed by something real, though even that itself dependned on the faith that holding gold could be useful in future.

    Granted, that backing by sheer faith and backing by (at least) the U.S. Gov't (the people) is quite a bit different ... at least, on the face of it. But, underneath, all modes of exchange except for FTF barter for commodity goods-in-hand is based on faith that the token (whatever token) has value in the future. Whether that token of faith be a physical signature on a piece of paper, a digital signature, cash, or whatever token of faith one chooses.

    Just ask any Venezuelan, today, whether "cash" in hand has any real value that's backed by anything solid. (Any of the world's economies can have this happen in a heartbeat, if the conditions are right and that "faith" evaporates. Germany in the 1920s, the USA in the early 1930s, Venezuela now, etc.)

    Good topic: the ability to trade with others, in the face of a truly SHTF situation where "faith" in tokens of value takes a severe hit.


    Quote from a recent film that hits this point home:
    Investor: "Money's still money."

    Oscar Schindler: "No, it is not. That's why we're here. Trade goods, that's the only currency that'll be worth anything in the ghetto. Things have changed, my friend."
    - from the 1993 film Schindler's List, in a discussion between potential investors in Schindler's "pots and pans" manufacturing enterprise, where he's asking the investors to put up all the money and he would handle "the presentation" (but not "the work").
    Yeah, I realize that about the dollar, that it's a fiat currency. Though the market is currently favoring bitcoin as the fiat currency de jour, in a dramatic country or worldwide crisis, I wonder if either would have much value. My concern about bitcoin in a SHTF situation is Can it be accessed? How widely can it be accessed? If Amazon Prime is gone and trading over great distances is gone, who locally will accept it? I see bitcoin as something worthwhile only in current society where I can use it as an exchange medium around the world.

    I think that in a "truly SHTF situation" that faith in tokens (fiat currencies of any shape or form or denomination) will take a severe hit. I think that it will evolve quickly. In the first few days, dollars will still be worth something, but with pretty quick inflation. If banks and electronic functions are gone, cash will be king and bitcoin won't be available to trade without the electronic part of our society. Credit cards, ATMs and such just won't work. Checks probably wouldn't be accepted within a short time.

    I do keep a small amount of cash. I don't count on being able to access any asset that requires electricity or a widespread network. But, I would look at the situation and guess how long it would last. If I thought it would last over a few days, I'd spend the cash on goods just as fast as I could. For items that would soon disappear. If winter, propane, gasoline, other fuels. Extra generators, batteries, etc. Some staples and luxury items (alcohol, chocolate, toiletries). Then, as the value of those items increased, begin to use them as trading items for other things that I would decide have a utility further out in time.
    TANSTAAFL - "Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
    OldVet, 30 March 2018: "But being the agreeable sort, I agree."

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    A brewmaster and a distiller
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    Quote Originally Posted by goldshellback View Post
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    A brewmaster and a distiller
    How many cans of Spam or how many eggs for a pint ? Smoke ? I have some unopened packs of Camel filters . How about a pack for a pint ?

    Germany in the twenties was heavily dependent on American loans to help pay war reparations to the French and English whom themselves were trying to pay back loans owed to America from the war.
    When the Wall Street bubble broke it wasn't long before everyone defaulted on their loans and obligations and six million German men were out of work. Bye bye Wiemar, hello Adolf. Europe see's the shtf again.

    “Never in my life have I been so well disposed and inwardly contented as in these days. For hard reality has opened the eyes of millions of Germans.” Adolf Hitler

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    Senior Member Aceoky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer1270 View Post
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    Hey Pal! How have you been?
    Thank you for asking my friend, I've been fine we've been busy with life etc. LOL
    Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."Benjamin Franklin, 1759

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    My dog .... for tracking / hunting, and a good warning system.

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    Old Vet and Lima Charlie for humor and commentary. Maybe a case of whiskey to fuel them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hackberry View Post
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    Old Vet and Lima Charlie for humor and commentary. Maybe a case of whiskey to fuel them.
    A case isn't gonna hack it. Mere appetizer.
    Official Forum Curmudgeon Nonsense, I have not yet begun to defile myself.
    Tact: The skill of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they look forward to the trip.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eagleks View Post
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    My dog .... for tracking / hunting, and a good warning system.
    Do you have a Bug Out Bag for your dog?
    The value of our existence is in promoting humanity ... not dogma.
    - Sporadic -

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sporadic View Post
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    Do you have a Bug Out Bag for your dog?
    got it all covered.

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    Senior Member Saxdm9's Avatar
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    Lucifer’s Hammer 1977 by Nivens and Pournelle did a fine job of illustrating approaches to a permanent SHTF scenario. Darned instructive, really gets you thinking beyond just the “go bag”.

    I’m an Eagle Scout, orienteer, carpenter, mechanic, woodsman, shooter and experienced radio operator (but phone only, not CW). All my radio gear is operated from 12vdc and I can keep batteries going by solar, converter, or portable gen set. I can make a resonant antenna from wire or a lawn chair or anything in between. My favorite tools are my old-time straight handle 4# Plumb axe and my even older Austrian hatchet.
    Regards, Sax
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